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Friday, December 4, 2009

Rally in the $ may weigh on grains

A mostly lower start is indicated this am despite overnight gains in beans. The monthly employment report this am sparked a big rally in the $, which is likely to weigh on all the grains this am, including beans. Other commodity markets are generally lower, especially gold, which currently is down over $30 an once. The early call in grains is 1-2 lower wheat, corn and beans. There is little in the way of any other fresh news so far this am so the market will likely take most of its direction from the $.

Deliveries were 2200 wheat to Dec 3, 837 corn to Nov 27, 682 oil to Dec 3 and 182 oats to Dec 3.

The USDA just announced the sale of 232,000 tonnes of US beans to China for the 2009-10 crop year, which started Sep 1.

Brazil will see welcome dry weather in the southern part of the country the next several days with rain returning to this area Tue-Wed. The northern areas will continue to have rain the next several days. Argentina was generally dry yesterday and will stay that way today. Up to 1/2" of welcome rain is forecast over the weekend but this will be widely scattered. Better rains are predicted early next week except in southern Buenos Aires province, which will stay dry. More rain would be welcome everywhere in Argentina.

The midwest will be generally dry the next several days. Precipitation in the form of rain or snow is likely Tue-Wed next week, along with high winds. Farmers will try to harvest as much of their remaining corn and beans ahead of this storm, which will halt harvest efforts once it hits. The high winds are especially dangerous for corn since if the corn stalks are knocked down by the wind or snow they can't be harvested anymore. An additional problem this season for farmers is the high moisture content of the corn, which is dangerous to store due to the high risk of mold developing and is very expensive to dry down to a normal moisture content. Thus, some corn farmers are caught between the proverbial "rock and a hard place" as far as harvesting their corn crop is concerned.

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You should not rely on any of this information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informational purposes and is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. There is unlimited risk of loss with selling options. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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