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Lower grains start indicated as choppy trading continues
A lower start is indicated this am, 4-5 in wheat and corn, 8-10 in beans. Prices were lower overnight, the $ is a little higher and crude oil is lower, all strong indicators of a lower start in the grains.
Grains were lower Wednesday, higher yesterday and will start lower this am in choppy, back and forth trading. Today is the last trading day of the month, a day when funds supposedly are more active than usual. If so, this could push prices further in either direction, depending on what the funds do, if anything. There isn't a lot of fresh market moving news yet today so we will concentrate on the $ and the latest weather forecast, both of which are bearish currently for the grains.
It has been hot in Argentine grain areas lately but cooler and wetter weather is forecast this weekend, which will be beneficial for the crops. Brazilian bean areas will be mostly dry the next 5-7 days, which will be helpful as way too much rain has fallen in many parts of the belt lately.
More heavy rain is forecast in the US delta today, further delaying harvesting and causing additional quality losses to the bean crop. Dry weather is forecast starting this weekend and continuing most of next week, which will be very welcome. The southwest winter wheat belt saw up to .5" of rain in the west the last 24 hours. Mostly dry weather is forecast the next 7 days and the 6-10 calls for below normal rain, which will help finish planting. The Midwest saw up to 1.5" of widespread, unwanted rain the last 24 hours. The western half of the belt will be mostly dry today into at least the second half of next week. The eastern half of the belt will see up to 1" of unwanted rain today, replaced by mostly dry weather this weekend through most of next week. The 6-10 day calls for below normal rain, which should help facilitate late corn and bean harvesting. Of course, the forecast can and probably will change over coming days but at least for this morning the forecast is bearish.
Higher grains start likely
A higher start is likely this am, 2-4 wheat, 2-3 corn and 4-5 beans. Weekly export sales were good for beans at 691,000 tonnes, in line for meal at 176,000 tonnes, but slow elsewhere: 348,000 tonnes of wheat; 367,000 tonnes of corn and 9000 tonnes of oil. Crude oil is higher and the $ is lower, a friendly combination for all the grains.
Iraq reportedly bought 100,000 tonnes each of US, Russian and Australian wheat.
The Census Bureau last week estimated US bean oil stocks for Sep at 2.880 billion lbs, which was considered a bearish number. This am, the official Census Bureau Sep oil stocks figure came out at just 2.739 billion lbs. This is friendly for bean oil as the official number was much lower by 141 million lbs. than the estimate last week. Usually, there is only a very small difference, a few million lbs, between the Census Bureau estimate and the official figure released about one week later. The Census Bureau also said this am that biodiesel production consumed 203 million lbs of bean oil in Sep compared with 156 million in Aug and 246 million in Sep 2008.
Drier weather is expected in much of southern Brazil the next several days, which will be welcome after recent widespread heavy rain. Argentina will be hot and dry the next few days but wet weather is forecast this weekend into early next week, which will be welcome.
Several inches of more damaging, harvest delaying rain is forecast the next two days in the US delta. The southwest winter wheat belt had up to 1.25" in the central and western parts of the belt the last 24 hours. Up to 1" rain is forecast today-tomorrow, especially in the east. Welcome dry weather will be seen this weekend into early next week, allowing for late winter wheat planting. The Midwest was mostly dry the last 24 hours. Rain will fall over much of the belt today-tomorrow, up to 1" in the west, up to 2" in the east. Welcome dry weather will then move into the belt this weekend through most of next week, finally allowing for rapid harvest progress of corn and beans, as well as late soft red winter wheat planting.
Lower grains start indicated by overnight losses
A lower start is indicated across the floor by overnight losses. The early call is 10 down in wheat and beans, 5 lower corn. The $ index is a little higher while crude oil is slightly lower, not enough to strongly influence the grains but still a little negative for them. There isn't a lot of fresh news yet this am so traders are likely to continue focusing on the weather and the $ for direction in the grains.
Friday is first notice day for Nov bean deliveries with very few, if any, expected to be delivered.
There has been a lot of rain in southern Brazil lately but conditions are now expected to turn dry there the next several days. The north will see scattered rain tomorrow into early next week. Conditions are very favorable overall at this time.
The US southwest was mostly dry the last 24 hours. Rain is possible tonight into Friday, up to 1.5", which could slow late planting of the crop. Mostly dry weather is predicted Sat-Mon, which will be welcome. The midwest saw dry conditions in the west the last 24 hours but scattered rain in the southern part of the east with up to 3/4". Most of the midwest will be dry today-tomorrow. Rain is likely in the west starting tomorrow night, sweeping across to the southeastern part of the belt by Friday and bringing up to 1.5" of unwanted rain. More rain is possible Saturday-Monday but the 6-10 day forecast calls for generally below normal rain, which will be very welcome and should allow for a big increase in corn and bean harvesting.
Crop Progress shows corn, beans behind average
A mixed to mostly lower start is expected this am, down 3-4 wheat, 1 corn and steady beans. The $ is a little lower this am and crude oil is a little higher, but not enough to be a major supportive influence on the grains. This could change during the session so traders will keep an eye on these outside markets as the day progresses.
The Weekly Crop Progress Report showed only 20% of the corn and 44% of the beans have been harvested vs 58% average for corn and 80% average for beans. Winter wheat planting nationally reached 76% vs 85% average. Soft red winter wheat planting remains well behind normal in Illinois and Indiana with just 33% and 43% have been planted, respectively. Normally, 82-83% of the crop has been planted by this time in the season in these states. However, Ohio, the largest soft red winter wheat state, is not too far behind at 79% vs 86% average.
We could have a "turn-a-round Tuesday" trade today with the market reversing course from yesterday, which would mean higher prices today.
Friday is first notice day for Nov bean deliveries with very few, if any, deliveries expected.
There will be an internet seminar on Monday, Nov 2 at 2pm US Central time entitled "The Forces Driving The Ag Credit Market And Its Impact On Producers". You must register to watch this seminar on the internet. Go to CMEGroup/AgCreditWebinar to register.
More bean harvest-delaying rain is forecast in the delta over the next few days. The southwest winter wheat belt had up to 1" of rain scattered in the east yesterday. It will be mostly dry today-tomorrow but more scattered rain is forecast starting tomorrow night and Thursday, up to 1.5", which could slow late winter wheat planting. Welcome dry weather is forecast Fri-Sun and the 6-10 day predicts below normal rain. The Midwest saw only light, scattered rain yesterday. The belt will see up to 1.5" of scattered but widespread rain the next few days before dry weather moves in over the weekend. The forecasters are still split on next week but most now aknowledge the possibility of a pattern change to much drier weather then, which would facilitate rapid harvest progress. This possibility weighed heavily on prices yesterday, along with the strong $ but this morning the market doesn't seem to have any clear cut direction, especially judging by overnight action.
Weather continues to support grains
A modestly higher start is expected this am, roughly 5 in wheat and beans, 2 in corn. Crude oil is a little lower but so is the $, not offering much guidance to the grains.
This afternoon's Weekly Crop Progress Report is highly anticipated this am as it will show how much (or little) harvest progress was made over the last week in Midwestern corn and bean fields. It will also reveal the extent of winter wheat planting progress with traders attention here focused on the Midwestern soft red winter wheat states, which are expected to remain way behind normal with the optimum planting time already behind us in much of the belt. Agronomists with the Universities of Arkansas and Mississippi in the Delta report huge bean quality losses from excessively wet weather the last 6 weeks, which has prevented harvesting. Losses in the Delta currently are estimated anywhere from 20-90%! Bean harvesting this afternoon is expected to be roughly 40-50% for the US as a whole with corn guessed around 20-25%.
The southwest winter wheat belt, where hard red winter wheat is grown had highly scattered weekend rains. The southwest part of this region received up to 1/2". Up to 1.5" more is forecast the second half of the week, but the 6-10 day calls for below normal rain, which will be welcome. Farmers are behind schedule in planting the hard red winter crop so drier weather will give them a chance to catch up. The Delta will see more unwelcome rain tomorrow and again later in the week, expected to cause even more quality losses and harvest delays. The Midwest had up to 1" of scattered weekend rain. Light, scattered rain is predicted the next few days but the second half of the week up to 1.5" is forecast scattered over much of the area and the 6-10 day currently calls for above normal rain. All this moisture will further delay harvest efforts and support prices.
Higher Grains Start Expected Following Overnight Gains
A higher start is expected this am, 10-15 wheat, 5-10 corn and 15 beans, following similarly large overnight gains. Crude oil is slightly higher but so is the $, not giving any guidance to the grains at this time. Nov options expire at the close today.
There has been growing concern recently about the wet weather-delayed Midwestern corn and bean harvest, which is preventing soft red winter wheat planting. It is getting late to plant this crop and if wet weather continues, as is currently forecast, some intended soft red winter wheat acreage might not be planted this season. This is bullish of course for wheat, especially here in Chicago, where soft red winter wheat is traded. The latest weekly crop progress report, out Monday afternoon, showed total winter wheat planting, including hard red winter, soft red winter and white winter, was moderately behind schedule, 69% vs 78% average. Kansas, the largest hard red winter wheat producing state in the country, was 73% done vs 83 average. In contrast, soft red winter wheat states are way behind normal. For example, Illinois was only 13% done vs 67% average while Indiana was 22% complete vs 69% average. In some areas, the optimum planting period is already past or about to be, causing a growing number of farmers to quit planting soft red winter. Further planting delays could result in well below average yields in those fields that are planted now or later unless we have very good weather conditions the rest of the fall and next spring, when the crop comes out of dormancy and resumes growth.
It is raining heavily in the Chicago area this am. This has a bigger impact on the market than if it were raining heavily in some other Midwestern location, such as Des Moines, Iowa, since most local traders live in the Chicago area and the weather here strongly influences their trading ideas. Up to 2" fell over much of the Midwest the last 24 hours. There is more rain forecast today followed by drier weather this weekend. More rain is forecast the first half of next week although amounts are expected to be lighter than from the current system. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain, which could keep conditions unfavorable for harvesting throughout next week. The southwest winter wheat belt, where hard red winter wheat is grown, had scattered, light precipitation in the form of rain or snow yesterday. More is expected the first half of next week after a mostly dry weekend, which will be welcome.
Crush in line with trade ideas
A slightly lower start is forecast this am, 2-4 wheat, 2-3 corn and 6-8 beans. Crude oil is lower while the $ index is lower, a bearish combination for all the grains.
The Census Bureau Sep crush was in line with trade ideas at 114 million bushels. Meal stocks were lower than expected at 239,200 short tons but oil stocks were higher than forecast at 2.880 billion lbs. Yesterday oil was losing on a spread basis vs meal most of the session but late in the day oil rallied sharply to once again gain vs meal with the Dec oil share ending at 39.13%. Oil share is the % of the value of the crush oil represents compared with meal. This morning's crush report is negative for oil, a little supportive for meal, which could influence spreading between the two. However, the weekly export sales report this am was just the opposite: oil sales were strong at 23,000 tonnes but meal sales were slow at only 116,000 tonnes. Bean sales were good at 987,000 tonnes, as was wheat at 628,000 tonnes. Corn sales were poor at only 235,000 tonnes.
Nov options expire at the close tomorrow.
Here is another seasonal trade: the last 15 years in a row, Jul wheat has gained on Dec wheat on a spread basis from Oct 23 to Nov 8. Buy Jul/sell Dec wheat tomorrow and take the spread off either Nov 6 or 9 since the 8th is a Sunday this year. (Of course, you could actually take this spread off on Nov 8 in the electronic market which will be trading that night.)
The southwest winter wheat belt had up to 1.5" of scattered rain the last 24 hours. More is forecast today before dry weather moves into the belt the next several days. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain, which should keep conditions in good shape overall. The Midwest saw up to 1.25" in the west the last 24 hours, mostly dry weather in the east. Up to 2 1/2" of rain is forecast across much of the belt the next two days. More is possible early next week and the 6-10 forecast calls for above normal rain. All the moisture will keep corn and bean harvest progress slow, which is supportive for prices.
Slightly lower grains start expected
A slightly lower start is expected this am, 2-3 in wheat, 1-3 in corn and 5 in beans. The $ index is a little lower but so is crude oil and equities, giving little guidance to the grains.
Safras e Mercado, a widely-followed Brazilian analyst, estimated Brazilian bean planting is 13% done, way ahead of the 5% average for this early in the season.
Jan beans have rallied 13 out of the last 15 years from Oct 22 to Nov 17 so buy Jan beans tomorrow and sell them Nov 17 if you want to follow this seasonal trend.
Widespread rain is forecast to continue in much of the Brazilian bean belt but this hasn't slowed planting so far.
The southwest US had rain in the western part of the belt the last 24 hours. Up to 1.5" more rain is expected in the belt today-tomorrow. The Midwest was generally dry the last 24 hours. Up to 1.5" of unwanted, harvest-delaying rain is forecast over much of the belt the next 2-3 days. Additional amounts are likely early next week as well, which will further delay harvesting of corn and beans. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain, none of which will be welcome.
Grains harvest pace slowest since '85
A steady/lower start is likely this am, following modest overnight losses in most pits. Wheat is called steady/mixed, corn down 1 and beans off 3-5. Crude oil is a shade lower but the $ index is a little lower while equities are a bit higher, sending mixed signals to the grains. Today could be a "turn-a-round Tuesday" type session with the market reversing course from yesterday's big gains.
The weekly crop progress report yesterday afternoon showed only small progress in corn and bean harvesting with just 17% of the corn done vs 46% average while only 30% of the beans are harvested vs 72% average. This harvest pace is the slowest for both crops since the USDA started tracking harvest progress in 1985! Winter wheat planting is also behind schedule due to wet weather with 69% planted vs 78% average. The pace of soft red winter wheat planting, the type traded here in Chicago, is particularly slow. Illinois, for example, a grower of soft red winter wheat, is only 13% done vs 67% average. Hard red winter wheat planting in the southwest is much further along in comparison. Corn maturity continues to lag well behind normal with 83% of the crop mature and safe from freezing temps vs 97% average.
The CFTC recently revised their weekly committment of traders (COT) report to make it much more comprehensive, dividing traders into 4 groups (producers and merchants, swaps dealers, money managers and others) vs the two groups they used to report on (commercials and non-commercials, or speculators). Today the CFTC said they will release the more detailed COT report dating back to June 13, 2006 in an effort to improve market transparency. This probably won't impact the market but it might reveal some interesting statistics.
Iraq will be in the market late this month for 100,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat and there are reports Algeria late last week bought 300,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat.
The US southwest will see rain starting tomorrow night and continuing through Thursday with up to 2" expected before dry weather moves into the belt this weekend. The Midwest was dry the last 24 hours. Unwelcome, harvest delaying rain will sweep across much of the belt starting tonight in the west, tomorrow in the east. This rain will end Thursday in the west, Friday in the east after dropping as much as 1.5" in the west and up to 2" in the east. A dry weekend is now forecast but the 6-10 day calls for above normal rain, which could cause further harvest delays for corn and beans as well as additional planting delays for soft red winter wheat.
Higher grains start forecast
A higher start is forecast this am, roughly 5-10 in wheat, 3-5 corn and 10-15 beans following overnight gains. Crude oil is a little lower currently but so is the $ while equities are higher, not providing much direction either way for the grains.
Reports of frost in some eastern Australian wheat areas over the weekend might have done some damage to the wheat crop there while high temps in some western parts of the belt could also have hurt production prospects for wheat. There is talk crushers in northeast China cancelled 2-3 cargoes of US beans, replacing them with domestically produced beans to take advantage of the government's almost $31 a tonne subsidy but this talk is not confirmed.
Deutsche Bank will start reducing its long positions in wheat and corn today, completing this rebalancing of its portfolio by the end of the month. How much they will sell in wheat and corn is unknown but estimates range as high as 15,000 contracts in each. Since this will be spread out over the next two weeks, its impact on these markets should be limited.
Seasonally, Nov beans often rally during the last half of Oct. More corn and bean harvest delays are expected the second half of this week and beyond, which is the main reason for the expected strength in these pits this am. Traders are looking forward to the weekly crop progress report this afternoon which will show how much (or how little) harvest progress was made over the last week.
Beneficial rain is forecast in Argentine grain areas this week. Welcome rain fell in southern Brazil over the weekend, up to 2.5". More is forecast today before drier weather moves in the rest of the week. The north will see up to 1.5" today-Wednesday. This rain will slow planting progress but provide soil moisture for crop development once the crops are in the ground.
The US delta will stay dry through mid week, allowing for good bean harvest progress but rain is forecast Thursday. The southwest winter wheat belt was mostly dry over the weekend and more of the same is forecast the next couple of days. Rain is forecast Wednesday, up to 1.5", which will be welcome. The Midwest was mainly dry over the weekend. Up to 1" of rain will fall in the west with another 1" forecast Thur-Fri. The east will see rain the second half of the week, up to 1.5". The 6-10 day calls for cool and wet conditions, a combination that is likely to keep harvesting of corn and beans slow well beyond this week.
Lower overnights don't mean anything ahead of USDA grain report
Prices were mostly a little lower overnight but this doesn't mean anything, coming ahead of the USDA. Crude oil is a little lower while the $ is a shade higher, not enough to impact the grains at this time.
The US delta will see more unwelcome rain today, further delaying bean harvesting. Drier weather is forecast this weekend but now the outlook calls for additional rain early next week, suggesting additional harvest delays. The southwest winter wheat belt had scattered rain the last 24 hours with more expected the next several days. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain also, which could delay planting. The midwest saw up to 4" of rain in the southwest part of the belt the last 24 hours and up to 2.5" in the southeast part of the region during this time. More rain is forecast in the eastern half of the belt today. The 6-10 day predicts above normal rain too, all of which will slow early corn and bean harvest efforts. A hard freeze (temps below 28 degrees for 2 hours or more) in the northern half of the western midwest this weekend, ending the growing season there. A hard freeze might hit the northern half of the eastern midwest Sunday morning but this is not as certain at this time. Any immature crops are in danger from this cold weather threat and some damage is highly likely, the only question being how much?
Higher grains start forecast
A higher start is forecast across the floor this am, around 5 cents in wheat, corn and beans. The ongoing fall in the $ is giving all commodities a boost this am with gold continuing to rally sharply, crude oil higher, etc.
Weekly export sales were good for wheat at 767,000 tonnes. Corn was slow at 522,000 tonnes, as were beans at 451,000 tonnes. The products were in line with a total of 144,000 tonnes of meal between the two crop years and a total of 55,000 tonnes of oil between the two crop years. Expect a lot of evening up and positioning today ahead of the big USDA October crop report tomorrow am.
Scattered rain fell in the US southwest winter wheat belt yesterday and more of the same is predicted today-tomorrow as well as Sun-Mon, all of which will be welcome. The delta will see more bean harvest-delaying rain the next couple of days but drier weather is forecast this weekend into early next week. The Midwest was mostly dry yesterday but rain is forecast today, especially in the east, where up to 2" could fall by tomorrow. Dry weather is forecast in most of the Midwest this weekend, along with much colder temps. A season-ending freeze is likely in the northwest part of the belt this weekend but a higher percentage of the crops there are mature than in the east, which should limit damage. The east might see freezing temps this weekend also, mainly in the northern areas, which could do some significant damage to immature corn there.
Small changes overnight; Traders await USDA report
Prices were mixed with only small changes overnight, reflecting the lack of significant market moving news this am. The $ is a little higher while crude oil is a shade lower, not enough to impact the grains at this time. The big USDA crop report is only 48 hours away and many traders are content to simply wait to see the numbers before getting actively involved in the market again.
Conab, the Brazilian version of the USDA, estimated their upcoming bean crop at 62.3-63.3 million tonnes vs 57.1 million last year. They put the corn crop at 50.9-52.2 million tonnes vs 51 million last year. Conab's wheat guess was 5.25 million tonnes vs their Sep guess of 5.85 million. Conab's bean and corn guesses are their first guesses of the new season for these crops.
Here are the preliminary estimates for Friday's USDA reports: ending 2009-10 wheat stocks 798 million bushels; corn 1.675 billion bushels and beans 257 million. Corn production 12.993 billion bushels with a yield of 162.7 bushels per acre (bpa); beans 3.291 billion with a yield of 42.9 bpa.
India's Farm Commissioner says recent rains have flooded some areas, damaging various crops but the rain is beneficial for the winter wheat crop. Ukraine's Farm Minister says a severe drought is gripping part of the grain belt, damaging crops such as wheat.
Here in the US, the delta will see more unwelcome, bean harvest-delaying rain the next few days but drier weather is forecast this weekend into early next week. The southwest winter wheat belt saw scattered rain the last 24 hours with more forecast the next few days. The Midwest had scattered rain the last 24 hours and more rain is forecast the next few days, especially in the eastern half of the belt, where up to 2" could fall. Very cold temps are predicted this coming weekend, probably ending the growing season in much of the northern half of the Midwest. This could do significant damage to the corn crop.
Crop Progress Report: Corn, beans behind in maturity
Prices should be higher to start, roughly 8-10 wheat and corn, 10-15 beans, following similar overnight gains. The $ is lower while equities and crude oil are higher, a supportive influence for all the grains.
The Crop Progress Report yesterday afternoon showed corn still far behind normal in maturity, only 57% vs 84% normally at this time in the season. Beans are behind also but not as much at 79% vs 88%. This slow rate of maturity means these crops, especially corn, are vulnerable to damage should a freeze hit the northern half of the Midwest late this week, as currently forecast. This prospect helped rally the market yesterday, especially corn, and could do so again today. Harvest progress is also slow, only 10% done in corn vs 25% average and 15% in beans vs 36% average. Spring wheat harvesting is virtually done at 97%. Winter wheat planting is on target at 53% complete vs 55% average.
The big USDA October crop report will be out Friday am and there will probably be a lot of evening up and positioning ahead of this report, which could move the market sharply.
No confirmation yet on yesterday's late rumor that Brazil was importing US ethanol, specifically from ADM. This provided strong support for corn yesterday and could do so again today. China's markets are still closed for a holiday but they will be reopened Friday.
Scattered rain is predicted in the US southwest winter wheat belt the next few days, where it is welcome. The delta will continue wet the rest of the week, further delaying bean harvesting. Light, scattered rain fell in the western Midwest yesterday. More is possible late Wednesday and Thursday. The eastern Midwest will see rain today and again Thur-Fri. Freezing temps are forecast across much of the northern Midwest Fri-Sun, which could harm still developing crops, especially corn.
Market will await Friday USDA report
A mixed but mostly lower start is expected this am with wheat steady/up 1, corn down 1-2 and beans off 3-5. Crude oil is down triple digits, a negative background feature for corn and bean oil. The $ is a shade lower, not enough to make much difference to the grains. The main event this week other than reacting to the latest weather developments will be waiting for and evening up ahead of Friday morning's big USDA Oct crop report. Trade averages for this report should be out by tomorow at the latest.
Prices were much weaker Friday with beans hitting their lowest level since mid July. Despite this big sell off, open interest jumped 10,000 in corn and 7000 in beans, suggesting a lot of new shorts are in the market. Some of them will no doubt want to even up ahead of Friday's report but much of this will probably not take place until Wed-Thur.
Chinese markets will remain closed until Friday so we probably (but not for certain) won't get any big sales announcements of US beans to China at least until Friday.
Widespread rain is forecast in Argentine wheat areas this coming weekend, which will be very welcome. Rain is falling much further north in India than normal for this time of year, benefiting winter wheat but slowing harvesting for other crops.
The US delta had rain over the weekend and more is forecast this week, further delaying bean harvesting there. Scattered rain is forecast this week in the southwest winter wheat belt, where it is welcome. The Midwest saw light, widely-scattered weekend rain along with cold temps in the west. Up to 1" of rain is forecast in the west tonight and tomorrow with more possible the second half of the week. A hard freeze, with temps below 28 degrees for at least a couple of hours, is possible in the northern part of the Midwest between Thur-Sat. The eastern part of the belt will see scattered rain tomorrow and again Thur-Fri along with cold temps.
Lower grains start likely following overnight losses
A lower start is likely in all pits, roughly 5 wheat, 2-4 corn and 7-10 beans following similar overnight losses. Crude oil is under strong pressure while the $ index is a little higher and equities are lower, a bearish combination for the grains. Oil deliveries totaled 1400 lots with the date Oct 1.
The USDA announced they might adjust the numbers from their Sep 30 production report due to the larger than normal amount of unharvested acreage in the northern plains when this report was compiled. The revised report would be released along with the other production estimates in the Nov 10 crop production report. The revised report would incorporate changes for acreage, yield, production and stocks in spring wheat, durum wheat and oats.
Stats Canada put out its updated crop production estimates today. Traders were looking for all wheat production to total 24.5 million tonnes, durum wheat 4.7 million, oats 3.1 million, barley 9.4 million and canola 10.6 million. The actual numbers released this am were 24.6 million tonnes all wheat, 5.1 million durum, 2.9 million oats, 9.2 million barley and 10.3 million canola. The canola and oats numbers were supportive while the durum number was negative. All wheat and barley were about in line.
Informa will put out their US grain production estimates at 10:30 central time this am. The USDA Oct crop report will be out one week from today.
Monsoon rains are returning to northern India, which is unusual for October.This could benefit winter wheat but is unwelcome for other crops, such as cotton. More dry weather in northern New South Wales state in Australia continues to stress the wheat crop there and little rain is in the forecast.
The US delta will see more unwanted rain through early next week, further delaying bean harvesting. The southwest winter wheat belt will be mostly dry today and tomorrow with light, scattered rain early next week. Up to 1.5" of unwanted rain fell in the western midwest and up to 1" fell in the east the last 24 hours. More is possible today but generally dry weather is forecast this weekend. More potentially early corn and bean harvest delaying rain is forecast again early next week. Temps are forecast to remain on the cold side and a season ending freeze is possible late next week.
Steady/easier grains start expected
A mostly steady/easier start is likely this am, down 3-5 wheat, steady/easier corn and beans. The $ index is higher this am while crude oil and equities are a little lower, a negative combination for all the grains.
FC Stone estimated the US corn crop yesterday afternoon at 13.064 billion bushels with a yield of 163.3 bushels per acre. Their bean guess was 3.329 billion with a 43.4 yield. Last month the USDA put the crops at 12.954 billion with a 161.9 yield and 3.245 billion with a 42.3 yield, respectively. The next USDA estimates will be out Oct 9.
Weekly export sales this am were in line for wheat, poor for meal and great for the rest: 538,000 tonnes of wheat; 67,000 tonnes of meal between the old and new crop years; 1.223 million tonnes of corn; 1.385 million tonnes of beans and 198,000 tonnes of oil between the two crop years. Much of the oil is headed to unknown destinations at this time. Chinese buying accounted for 809,000 tonnes of the bean sales this am. China will be on a national holiday today through next Thursday with their markets reopening a week from tomorrow. This makes large bean sales less likely to China for the next week although they can't be ruled out.
The monthly Census Bureau oil stocks report this am showed 156 million lbs of bean oil was used to make biodiesel fuel (methyl ester) during August compared with 149 million in July. There were no meal deliveries this am but 1900 oil was delivered.
The southwest winter wheat belt will be mostly dry the next few days, allowing for rapid planting progress. Rain is possible again early next week. More unwelcome, bean harvest-delaying rain is forecast in the delta tonight and tomorrow with further harvest delays probable next week from additional rain. The northeast part of the Midwest might have suffered some freeze damage this am. Wet weather will slow early harvest efforts across the Midwest the next several days. Up to 1.5" of rain is predicted in the west along with cold temps the next two days while up to 1.5" of moisture could fall in the east during this time, also accompanied by cold temps. Mostly dry weather is forecast this weekend but more rain is possible again early next week.
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