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Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Fund rebalancing to start Friday

A mixed start is expected with very little fresh news of consequence developing overnight, which could result in a slow, desultory trade today unless the funds become more active. The $ is a shade better, not enough to have any impact on the grains.

Deliveries were 800 lots in beans, 4800 oil and 0 meal. There was a modest amount of fund buying late yesterday which might have been index fund rebalancing but it now appears the bulk of this rebalancing won't start until late Friday and continue through Thursday next week. This could have a significant impact on prices. The other big potential market mover is the USDA report Tuesday morning. I should have trade estimates for this report tomorrow.

Argentina had up to 1.5" scattered rain the last 24 hours. It will be mostly dry today-Sunday but more scattered rain of up to 1.5" is forecast Monday. In many areas this moisture will be welcome but in areas that are flooded this will only cause more planting delays and possibly damage already planted corn and bean fields. Brazil saw light rain of up to 1/2" in Rio Grande state yesterday with dry weather elsewhere. Up to 1 1/2" of rain is forecast in Rio Grande and Parana today with another round of up to 1 1/2" forecast Sat-Tue. Mato Grasso state, in northern Brazil, was dry the last couple of days but scattered rain of up to 1 1/2" is expected Fri-Tue.

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You should not rely on any of this information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informational purposes and is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. There is unlimited risk of loss with selling options. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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