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Friday, January 15, 2010

Lower grains start indicated ahead of holiday

A mixed to mostly lower start is indicated this am, 3-5 off in wheat, 1-3 down in corn and steady/mixed in beans. There isn't a lot of fresh market moving news so far this am and with a long three-day holiday weekend ahead of us trading could be relatively subdued with evening up likely late.

The index fund rebalancing is over with the possible exception of corn, which could see one more day of buying, mostly late in the session.

The USDA announced the sale of 116,000 tonnes of US corn to an unknown destination for the 2009-10 crop year, which started Sep 1. Saudi Arabia is in the market for 500,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat although they probably won't buy any US origin. Results of this tender are due Sunday.

There is a rumor that one of the largest commercial grain companies, with extensive operations in South America, is estimating the Brazilian bean crop at 67 million tonnes, 2 million higher than the current USDA guess.

Only light, scattered rain fell in parts of Brazil the last 24 hours. Southern growing areas will see up to 1.5" this weekend with more forecast the first half of next week. Northern areas will see scattered rain today-Wednesday. Argentina was dry the last 24 hours with more of the same forecast today-Sunday. Hot temps are predicted this weekend before up to 3/4" of welcome rain falls Monday. Hot and dry weather is then forecast to return Tue-Fri next week. Conditions remain very favorable in South America currently but this turn to hotter and drier weather in Argentina will need to be watched.

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You should not rely on any of this information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informational purposes and is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. There is unlimited risk of loss with selling options. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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