Slightly higher grains start expected
A mostly slightly higher start is expected this am, unchanged to 2 better in wheat, corn and beans. The $ is barely a little higher, not enough to impact the grains.
Yesterday afternoon the Federal Reserve Bank was guardedly optomistic about the US economy, which could lend some support to grain prices as an economic recovery would boost equity prices and perhaps pull grain prices modestly higher as well. President Obama sounded a similar tone in his State of the Union speech, as expected, but perhaps more importantly, he moderated his tone regarding bank derivative trading. This could reduce the pressure that most commodity markets, including grains, have been under ever since the President said his administration would crack down on bank's derivative risk taking.
The Census Bureau Dec crush report this am was in line with 173.1 million bushels crushed. Oil stocks were about 140 million lbs less than expected, however, at 2.935 billion lbs. Meal stocks, in contrast, were 80,000 short tons higher than expected at 571,600 short tons. Weekly export sales were all either in line or better than expected: 661,000 tonnes of wheat; 902,000 tonnes of corn; 674,000 tonnes of beans for the 2009-10 crop year and 184,000 tonnes for the 2010-11 crop year; 254,000 tonnes of meal and 46,000 tonnes of oil.
There is some talk this am that Chinese buyers switched two cargoes of US origin beans for Feb shipment to South American origin but this isn't confirmed.
Scattered, light rain is forecast in Brazilian grain areas the next several days but amounts and coverage are forecast to be much less than has been the case lately. The Argentine grain belt will stay hot and dry the next couple of days with temps as high as 104. Scattered rain is forecast tomorrow night or Saturday, up to 1/2", along with cooler temps. It won't be as hot nor as dry early next week and the longer term forecasts continue to show a significant pattern change the second half of next week with cooler temps and rain still forecast then, which will be very welcome.
Yesterday afternoon the Federal Reserve Bank was guardedly optomistic about the US economy, which could lend some support to grain prices as an economic recovery would boost equity prices and perhaps pull grain prices modestly higher as well. President Obama sounded a similar tone in his State of the Union speech, as expected, but perhaps more importantly, he moderated his tone regarding bank derivative trading. This could reduce the pressure that most commodity markets, including grains, have been under ever since the President said his administration would crack down on bank's derivative risk taking.
The Census Bureau Dec crush report this am was in line with 173.1 million bushels crushed. Oil stocks were about 140 million lbs less than expected, however, at 2.935 billion lbs. Meal stocks, in contrast, were 80,000 short tons higher than expected at 571,600 short tons. Weekly export sales were all either in line or better than expected: 661,000 tonnes of wheat; 902,000 tonnes of corn; 674,000 tonnes of beans for the 2009-10 crop year and 184,000 tonnes for the 2010-11 crop year; 254,000 tonnes of meal and 46,000 tonnes of oil.
There is some talk this am that Chinese buyers switched two cargoes of US origin beans for Feb shipment to South American origin but this isn't confirmed.
Scattered, light rain is forecast in Brazilian grain areas the next several days but amounts and coverage are forecast to be much less than has been the case lately. The Argentine grain belt will stay hot and dry the next couple of days with temps as high as 104. Scattered rain is forecast tomorrow night or Saturday, up to 1/2", along with cooler temps. It won't be as hot nor as dry early next week and the longer term forecasts continue to show a significant pattern change the second half of next week with cooler temps and rain still forecast then, which will be very welcome.
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:25 AM
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