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Friday, February 12, 2010

China tightens monetary policy

The early grain call is 7-10 lower wheat and beans, 2-4 down corn.

China is tightening its monetary policy again, increasing commercial banks reserve requirements, which will reduce bank lending. This is being done to combat the threat of overheating of the Chinese economy and could slow Chinese demand for a variety of commodities, including grains. This is rallying the $ and weighing on world commodity and equity markets this am with metals, energy, grains, etc all lower.

Starting Tuesday, May corn will replace Mar as the top month and the same will happen in beans.

Weekly export sales were good for wheat at 548,000 tonnes, and oil at 45,000 tonnes. Corn was in line, at 743,000 tonnes but beans were slow at only 313,000 tonnes, as was meal at just 103,000 tonnes.

China will be on its annual lunar new year's holiday all next week so our biggest bean customer will be absent from the market.

Argentina was mostly dry the last 24 hours and more of the same is forecast today. Weekend rains are expected to bring up to 1" of moisture over much of the grain region but mostly dry weather is forecast again most of next week. Brazil continues to see much rain with more of the same predicted over the next week or so in all the major growing areas. Conditions in both countries remain very favorable.

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