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Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Has technical bounce in the grains arrived?

Has the long overdue technical bounce finally arrived? Prices were fairly strong overnight, gaining up to 9 1/2 cents but so many times lately shortcovering, technically inspired bounces have proved ephemeral, including yesterday, when Mar beans were 10 cents higher early in the session only to end several cents lower. While recent rally attempts have faltered, it could be argued the longer the market goes without a lasting technical correction, the stronger the need for one, an outcome that can't be delayed forever. There is little in the way of fresh market moving news to push prices strongly in either direction this am. The $ is just a shade lower, not enough to impact the grains very much. Crude oil and gold are higher, which might lend modest support to the grains. The early call is 7-10 higher wheat, 3-4 better corn and 5 up in beans.

Brazil was mostly dry the last 24 hours and more of the same is predicted the rest of this week, with only a few light, scattered showers expected in the south. Argentina saw a few light showers in Santa Fe province the last 24 hours and some light, scattered rain is predicted today in a few parts of the main grain growing areas. More widespread, significant rain is forecast Wed-Thur, spreading from south to north with up to 1" expected. Additional rain is forecast Fri-Sun, improving conditions considerably in all the main growing provinces.

No winter kill threat is seen in the Midwest or southwest winter wheat belts.

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