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Monday, February 22, 2010

Higher grains start expected despite lack of fresh news

A higher start is expected this am, around 3 in wheat, 5 corn and 8 beans. There isn't a lot of fresh market moving news so far today. The $ is slightly lower, providing some modest encouragement for buyers in all the grains.

China is back from its week long lunar new year holiday so some fresh export business could be done with them. However, China is in the seasonal process of shifting the bulk of its bean buying to South American origin rather than US so their return from the holiday might not result in more US bean export business. On the other hand, the bulls would argue the wet weather in various parts of South America is delaying early harvest efforts there and this could keep China buying US beans longer than would normally be the case this season.

Reports continue circulating about possible damage to Argentine bean and corn crops as a result of recent heavy rain. Excessive rains of up to 4" were reported in Cordoba, Santa Fe and eastern Buenos Aires provinces this weekend. Up to 1" of weekend rain was seen in southwest Buenos Aires province during this time. These are the largest bean producing provinces in the country, in the order listed above. More unwanted, scattered rain is forecast today before dry weather moves in the rest of the week but the damage might already have been done in the form of flooded fields and reduced yields. It was a dry weekend in southern Brazilian bean fields but northern Brazilian beans saw up to 1.5" of weekend moisture. More is forecast in the north today-tomorrow and again Thur-Sat, slowing or halting bean harvesting. Moderate to heavy rain is forecast today-tomorrow in Rio Grande state and in Parana state Tue or Wed, both in southern Brazil. Additional rain is forecast in Parana Thur-Fri while conditions turn dry in Rio Grande.

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