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Thursday, February 11, 2010

Higher grains start indicated; outside markets friendly

A mostly higher start is indicated this am, 5-10 in beans, 1-3 corn, 30 points in oil and 20-40 cents in meal. Only wheat is called lower, 2-4. The $ is a little higher but crude oil, gold and equities are all higher, a friendly combination overall for the grains unless the $ rallies further.

The cash bean market has been strong lately due to a lack of farmer selling amid strong ongoing demand from processors and exporters. This helped push bean prices higher yesterday and could well do so again today. There are early reports this am that over 100 contracts of bean receipts, probably located in Chicago, have been cancelled. This means a commercial, probably a processor, took these beans out of storage since they couldn't buy these beans from country elevators. This is another reflection of strong demand in the cash market and will lend additional support to the bean market this am.

Additional support could continue from the fact the conventional funds no longer have a huge long position in the corn and bean markets, meaning these funds are free to buy again. The upturn in corn and beans so far this week could induce fresh fund buying, as was the case yesterday, and also help drive prices higher.

Up to 1" of rain fell in Parana state in Brazil the last 24 hours with up to 1 1/4" in Mato Grasso state, leaving only Rio Grande state dry among the three largest Brazilian bean producing states. More rain is forecast in all three states over the next several days, extending into early next week. Argentina was generally dry overnight with more of the same predicted today. Scattered rain is then forecast the next several days as temps cool significantly by early next week. Conditions remain very favorable in both Brazil and Argentina.

Colder temps in the Midwest and southwest over the next several days or longer are not expected to get cold enough to harm the dormant winter wheat crop.

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