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Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Higher grains start indicated

A higher start is indicated this am, around 5-10 wheat, 2-4 corn and 10-12 beans. The $ is a little lower while crude oil and gold are sharply higher, a friendly combination for all the grains.

China is on its lunar new year's holiday all this week so they will likely be out of the market during this time.

The National Oilseed Processors Association, NOPA, was scheduled to release its Jan crush report this am but this has been delayed until tomorrow am. Traders look for a crush of 161.9 million bushels with oil stocks of 2.701 billion lbs.

The USDA annual outlook conference will take place Thur-Fri in Washington, revealing what the USDA is looking for this coming year in terms of production, supply/demand, etc for US grains.

The spec funds continue to add to their already very large short position in wheat, according to Friday's Commitment of Traders report. This potentially makes wheat subject to a large shortcovering rally at any time.

Too much rain has fallen lately in parts of Argentina's main grain growing areas but crops remain in good condition overall. Scattered rain was seen the last 4 days, up to 2.5" in Cordoba and Santa Fe provinces, up to 1" in Buenos Aires province. Dry weather is forecast today-tomorrow, followed by rain spreading from south to north across much of the belt Fri-Sat. Brazil had up to 4" of rain the last several days in Rio Grande state, up to 2" in Parana state and up to 1.5" in Mato Grasso state. More rain is forecast this week.

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You should not rely on any of this information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informational purposes and is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. There is unlimited risk of loss with selling options. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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