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Thursday, February 25, 2010

Long list of bearish news ahead of grains open

The early call is lower in all pits, 5-7 wheat, 3-4 corn and 7-10 beans. The list of bearish news this am is a long one: The $ is higher while crude oil, gold and equities are all lower; weekly export sales were slow for corn at 401,000 tonnes, and meal at 82,000 tonnes; wheat sales were roughly in line at 376,000 tonnes, as were beans at 239,000 tonnes; only oil sales were strong at 40,000 tonnes; the Census Bureau Jan crush was over 3 million bushels less than the trade expected, coming in at 167.2 million bushels; despite this lower crush, product stocks were higher than expected at 3.239 billion lbs of oil and 630,000 short tons of meal, making oil stocks around 125 million lbs higher than trade ideas and meal stocks over 100,000 short tons above trade estimates.

Argentina was mostly dry the last 24 hours and more of the same is predicted today through Monday with little chance of any rain until mid next week. This should allow saturated fields to dry out. Brazil had up to 1" of scattered rain in northern Parana state the last 24 hours but mostly dry weather was seen in Rio Grande and Mato Grasso during this time. Rio Grande and Parana will be mostly dry the next several days with the exception of northern Parana, where some scattered rain could fall today-tomorrow. Scattered rain is also forecast in Mato Grasso today-Saturday but heavier rain is indicated Sun-Tue, which could slow bean harvest efforts.

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