Lower grains start anticipated
A lower start is anticipated this am, roughly 2-4 wheat, 1 corn and 6-8 beans.
Weekly export sales were in line for wheat at 409,000 tonnes, higher than expected for corn at 975,000 tonnes, meal at 242,000 tonnes and oil at 47,000 tonnes. Bean sales were a marketing year low, just 204,000 tonnes. (The marketing year for beans started Sep 1.)
The US Federal Reserve Bank surprised investors late yesterday by raising its discount rate a quarter point. This rallied the $ sharply overnight and weighed on a variety of commodities, including grains. This morning, however, crude oil has managed to recover to slightly higher levels, offering a ray of hope to the bulls in grains that they might be able to do the same.
India is now expecting an 82 million tonne wheat crop vs previous estimates of 80.3 million due to ongoing favorable weather.
Talk continues about the poor quality of the US corn crop following bad weather conditions last season, including last fall, which seriously delayed harvesting. There has been talk this week that Japan will buy over 1 million tonnes of South American origin corn this year as a result of the poor US corn quality. This would be Japan's largest buy of South American corn in over 10 years.
More numbers from the USDA outlook conference were out this am. Some of the highlights were: ending wheat stocks of 940 million bushels; ending corn stocks of 1.654 billion and ending bean stocks of 330 million for the 2010-11 crop year. 2.8 billion lbs of bean oil will be used to make biodiesel fuel in 2010-11 vs the previous estimate of 2.4 billion and the 2.2 billion lbs estimated for 2009-10. Estimated oil exports were cut sharply to just 2.000 billion lbs vs the previous guess of 2.700 billion so ending stocks were left almost unchanged at 2.097 billion lbs for 2010-11 vs the previous guess of 2.109 billion.
Argentina had scattered rain overnight and more is forecast today-tomorrow across the belt. Amounts could be heavy in some areas before dry weather returns Sunday. Northern Brazil was dry the last 24 hours but scattered rain is predicted the next couple of days before dry weather resumes the first half of next week. Southern Brazil was mostly dry the last 24 hours with more dry weather forecast today-Sunday. Possibly heavy rain is forecast Mon-Wed in Rio Grande state but Parana state is expected to remain dry.
Weekly export sales were in line for wheat at 409,000 tonnes, higher than expected for corn at 975,000 tonnes, meal at 242,000 tonnes and oil at 47,000 tonnes. Bean sales were a marketing year low, just 204,000 tonnes. (The marketing year for beans started Sep 1.)
The US Federal Reserve Bank surprised investors late yesterday by raising its discount rate a quarter point. This rallied the $ sharply overnight and weighed on a variety of commodities, including grains. This morning, however, crude oil has managed to recover to slightly higher levels, offering a ray of hope to the bulls in grains that they might be able to do the same.
India is now expecting an 82 million tonne wheat crop vs previous estimates of 80.3 million due to ongoing favorable weather.
Talk continues about the poor quality of the US corn crop following bad weather conditions last season, including last fall, which seriously delayed harvesting. There has been talk this week that Japan will buy over 1 million tonnes of South American origin corn this year as a result of the poor US corn quality. This would be Japan's largest buy of South American corn in over 10 years.
More numbers from the USDA outlook conference were out this am. Some of the highlights were: ending wheat stocks of 940 million bushels; ending corn stocks of 1.654 billion and ending bean stocks of 330 million for the 2010-11 crop year. 2.8 billion lbs of bean oil will be used to make biodiesel fuel in 2010-11 vs the previous estimate of 2.4 billion and the 2.2 billion lbs estimated for 2009-10. Estimated oil exports were cut sharply to just 2.000 billion lbs vs the previous guess of 2.700 billion so ending stocks were left almost unchanged at 2.097 billion lbs for 2010-11 vs the previous guess of 2.109 billion.
Argentina had scattered rain overnight and more is forecast today-tomorrow across the belt. Amounts could be heavy in some areas before dry weather returns Sunday. Northern Brazil was dry the last 24 hours but scattered rain is predicted the next couple of days before dry weather resumes the first half of next week. Southern Brazil was mostly dry the last 24 hours with more dry weather forecast today-Sunday. Possibly heavy rain is forecast Mon-Wed in Rio Grande state but Parana state is expected to remain dry.
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:50 AM
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