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Monday, February 8, 2010

Snowfall closes USDA

The USDA is closed today due to the 2' weekend snowfall in Washington. We don't know at this time if the USDA report will be issued tomorrow am or if it will be delayed until Wednesday am. All the other USDA reports, such as weekly export inspections and weekly export sales, will be delayed at least one day. We will let you know as soon as we find out when Tuesday's supply/demand and world production report will be released.

The $ is a little weaker this am, which could lend modest support to the grains. The early call is higher, 4-5 wheat and corn, 10-15 beans, based on similar overnight gains. There will probably be some evening up today if the USDA announces their monthly report will be out Tuesday am. If it isn't released until Wednesday am, this evening up will take place tomorrow.

Index funds will continue moving their long positions in the March grains into May by spreading May/Mar late in the session today through Thursday.

Argentina saw up to 2" of widespread weekend rains which was welcome after their recent hot and dry weather period. Mostly dry weather is now forecast until light, scattered rain arrives mid-week with dry weather forecast again the latter part of the week. Southern Brazil (Rio Grand and Parana) was mostly hot and dry over the weekend but up to 3/4" fell in the north (Mato Grasso). Scattered rain will spread from the south to the north in southern Brazil today-tomorrow with more rain predicted the rest of the week. The long term forecast has rain in the south the first half of next week also. Northern Brazil will see more rain all this week with more forecast the first half of next week also. All this moisture in the north will slow bean harvesting.

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