$, Crude Bearish for Grains
A lower start will be seen in all pits this am, roughly 5 wheat, 3-5 corn and 5-8 beans. The $ is higher while gold and crude oil are lower, a bearish combination for all the grains.
Meal registrations (meal available for delivery) jumped overnight by 624 lots and Bunge put out 400 on delivery this am. Dreyfus took delivery of 82 with the rest scattered among various commission houses. The rest of the newly registered meal, 224 lots, will probably be put on delivery tomorrow. All this is negative for the nearby meal spread so expect Mar to lose on a spread basis to May and July today.
Conab, a division of the Brazilian Agriculture Dep't, raised their 2009-10 bean production guess from last month's 66.73 million tonnes to 67.57 million today. This new estimate is over 10 million tonnes above last year's crop of 57.17 million tonnes. Conab guessed the corn crop at 51.38 million tonnes virtually the same as their Feb guess of 51.36 million and they left their wheat guess unchanged at 5.03 million tonnes. It will be interesting to see what estimates the USDA comes out with tomorrow am regarding crop size in Brazil and Argentina. Expect a lot of evening up and positioning today ahead of tomorrow's USDA report.
Argentina had heavy rain in southwest Buenos Aires province the last 24 hours but dry weather elsewhere. More rain is predicted in the south today with rain moving into the northern areas by Friday. Southern Brazil will stay dry today through Sunday. Up to 1.25" of rain was seen in Mato Grasso state in the north the last 24 hours where it isn't welcome as it will slow bean harvesting. More but only light amounts of rain is forecast today-Saturday in the north. Overall, conditions remain very favorable in both Argentina and Brazil.
It still appears a wet week is in store for much of the Midwest with up to 1.5" forecast during this time. IF this wet pattern were to continue into late March/early April, then it could cause flooding and delay early corn planting but judging by the way corn acted yesterday it is still too early to worry about this possibility at this time. The southwest winter wheat belt will benefit from additional rain/snow with up to 1.25" seen the last 24 hours scattered around the region and more forecast today-Thursday, up to 1".
Meal registrations (meal available for delivery) jumped overnight by 624 lots and Bunge put out 400 on delivery this am. Dreyfus took delivery of 82 with the rest scattered among various commission houses. The rest of the newly registered meal, 224 lots, will probably be put on delivery tomorrow. All this is negative for the nearby meal spread so expect Mar to lose on a spread basis to May and July today.
Conab, a division of the Brazilian Agriculture Dep't, raised their 2009-10 bean production guess from last month's 66.73 million tonnes to 67.57 million today. This new estimate is over 10 million tonnes above last year's crop of 57.17 million tonnes. Conab guessed the corn crop at 51.38 million tonnes virtually the same as their Feb guess of 51.36 million and they left their wheat guess unchanged at 5.03 million tonnes. It will be interesting to see what estimates the USDA comes out with tomorrow am regarding crop size in Brazil and Argentina. Expect a lot of evening up and positioning today ahead of tomorrow's USDA report.
Argentina had heavy rain in southwest Buenos Aires province the last 24 hours but dry weather elsewhere. More rain is predicted in the south today with rain moving into the northern areas by Friday. Southern Brazil will stay dry today through Sunday. Up to 1.25" of rain was seen in Mato Grasso state in the north the last 24 hours where it isn't welcome as it will slow bean harvesting. More but only light amounts of rain is forecast today-Saturday in the north. Overall, conditions remain very favorable in both Argentina and Brazil.
It still appears a wet week is in store for much of the Midwest with up to 1.5" forecast during this time. IF this wet pattern were to continue into late March/early April, then it could cause flooding and delay early corn planting but judging by the way corn acted yesterday it is still too early to worry about this possibility at this time. The southwest winter wheat belt will benefit from additional rain/snow with up to 1.25" seen the last 24 hours scattered around the region and more forecast today-Thursday, up to 1".
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:58 AM
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