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Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Fears of a wet spring support corn market

A slightly higher start is expected this am, 1-2 wheat, 1-3 corn and 5 beans. The $ is slightly lower while gold and crude oil are a bit higher, a friendly combination for all the grains.

There was a surprise in deliveries this am with Bunge putting out 300 meal to Mar 2, the first meal deliveries so far this month. JP Morgan took delivery of 174 for a customer, widely thought to be Cargill. Other deliveries were routine: 600 wheat, 1100 corn, 300 beans and 250 oil. Once again, there isn't much market moving news this am, which suggests another relatively dull session.

Argentina saw up to 3/4" of scattered rain the last 24 hours in the main growing provinces, Santa Fe, Cordoba and Buenos Aires. Heavier amounts were seen in parts of Cordoba, the largest bean growing province. More rain is forecast today before dry weather returns Thur-Mon. Brazil saw up to 1.5" of bean harvest delaying rain in Mato Grasso state the last 24 hours. More unwanted rain is forecast in Mato Grasso today-tomorrow. Beneficial rain is predicted in southern Brazil Thur-Fri.

Wet weather is forecast in the US Midwest the first half of next week, which increases fears of a wet spring. This might not turn out to be the case but worry about a wet spring could lend support to the corn market as less corn would be planted if the weather delays planting. This would also be bearish for beans as wet spring conditions could force farmers to plant more beans instead of corn. New crop months would be directly effected by the weather more than the old crop months, specifically Dec corn and Nov beans. Widespread precip is forecast in the southwest winter wheat belt early next week, up to 1.5". This will be welcome as it builds soil moisture for spring growth of the hard red winter wheat crop.

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