Grains could bounce this morning
The opening is likely to be a little higher, around 1-3 in wheat, 2-4 corn and beans. Some traders think yesterday's losses were overdone, which could help the market bounce a little this morning. However, the $ is higher again this am and if it continues to rally, this could pressure grain prices, as it did yesterday.
There isn't a lot of fresh news to move the market this am but here are a couple of items to keep in mind for long term influence: Nie Zhenbang, the head of China's State Administration of Grain, said today that Chinese farmers will plant more corn and less beans this year than last due to higher yields and better returns from corn. This would be the same pattern as last year, when corn acreage gained 2% while bean acreage fell 4%. This will help keep China's bean imports very high this year, similar to last. Qian Keming, the director of the Chinese Agriculture Ministry Dep't of Market and Economic Information, said today big bean imports will continue but he is worried about corn because he said domestic demand is increasing rapidly while supply will tighten in the long term. If these officials are correct, this could be long term bullish for both US corn and bean prices.
Traders are looking forward to next Wednesday's USDA revised 2009 grain production report and monthly supply/demand report as well as the monthly world grain production estimates. Trade averages should be out later today.
Argentina will be generally dry today through Sunday with light scattered rain possible Mon-Tue next week. Brazil had light, scattered rain in the north the last 24 hours but dry weather prevailed elsewhere. It will be dry the next several days in most of the country but scattered rain is forecast in the north the first half of next week.
Wet weather is forecast in the Midwest US this weekend, extending into the first half of next week in the west and all next week in the east. This could once again raise fears of a wet spring that would delay corn planting. This would be potentially bullish corn but bearish beans as it could force farmers to plant more beans and less corn.
There isn't a lot of fresh news to move the market this am but here are a couple of items to keep in mind for long term influence: Nie Zhenbang, the head of China's State Administration of Grain, said today that Chinese farmers will plant more corn and less beans this year than last due to higher yields and better returns from corn. This would be the same pattern as last year, when corn acreage gained 2% while bean acreage fell 4%. This will help keep China's bean imports very high this year, similar to last. Qian Keming, the director of the Chinese Agriculture Ministry Dep't of Market and Economic Information, said today big bean imports will continue but he is worried about corn because he said domestic demand is increasing rapidly while supply will tighten in the long term. If these officials are correct, this could be long term bullish for both US corn and bean prices.
Traders are looking forward to next Wednesday's USDA revised 2009 grain production report and monthly supply/demand report as well as the monthly world grain production estimates. Trade averages should be out later today.
Argentina will be generally dry today through Sunday with light scattered rain possible Mon-Tue next week. Brazil had light, scattered rain in the north the last 24 hours but dry weather prevailed elsewhere. It will be dry the next several days in most of the country but scattered rain is forecast in the north the first half of next week.
Wet weather is forecast in the Midwest US this weekend, extending into the first half of next week in the west and all next week in the east. This could once again raise fears of a wet spring that would delay corn planting. This would be potentially bullish corn but bearish beans as it could force farmers to plant more beans and less corn.
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:29 AM
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