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Monday, March 8, 2010

Lower $ could support grains

A slightly higher start is indicated this am, about 1-3 wheat, 1 corn and 2-4 beans. The $ is slightly lower, which could lend some support to all the grains. Fears about possible spring flooding in the Midwest from widespread snow melt and rain could lend some support to corn due to fears planting will be delayed. Look for the start of evening up today with more tomorrow ahead of the USDA March crop report Wednesday am.

Oil/meal spreading will likely continue to attract some attention with the May oil share up to 43.9% this am. Many traders think oil will continue gaining vs meal on a spread basis with the spread between bean oil and palm oil down to only about $10 a tonne vs around $100 a tonne normally. This narrow spread should boost demand for bean oil and when the US Congress eventually reinstates the $1 a gallon tax subsidy for bio diesel fuel, made mostly from bean oil here in the US, this could also boost demand for bean oil.

In South America, Argentina had a mostly dry weekend. Scattered rain is predicted today-tomorrow, favoring the south. Mostly dry weather is forecast the second half of the week. Brazil was only light, scattered weekend rain in the north. Mostly dry weather is forecast this week although some light, scattered rain is forecast in the north. Harvest delays are expected to be minimal, however, due to the fact only light amounts of rain are forecast.

Light, scattered Midwest rain was seen over the weekend, up to .6" and up to 1.5" more is forecast over much of the region this week. Coupled with rising temps which will melt the large amount of snow still covering parts of the Midwest, fears are rising that spring flooding will result, causing corn planting delays. The southwest winter wheat belt had up to .7" of rain scattered in some areas over the weekend. More is forecast today-Wednesday, up to 1.5". All this moisture will be welcome ahead of winter wheat coming out of winter dormancy, with moisture needs increasing.

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